Research and Key Stat Model: Wells Fargo

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

This Week’s Stats

SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important. Given the heavy bunkering around the green, sticking your approach will avoid having to get up and down from the sand.

Tony Finau

Xander Schauffele

Collin Morikawa

Jordan Spieth

Rickie Fowler

Max Homa

Wyndham Clark

Rory McIlroy

Viktor Hovland

Gary Woodland

Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better).

Cameron Young

Rory McIlroy

Luke List

Davis Riley

Ben Martin

Viktor Hovland

Ryan Gerard

Xander Schauffele

Wyndham Clark

Samuel Stevens

Proximity from 200+ —

Patrick Cantlay

Gary Woodland

Adam Svensson

Robby Shelton

Michael Thompson

Tony Finau

Kurt Kitayama

Cameron Young

Viktor Hovland

Brent Grant

Proximity: 175-200 –

Taylor Pendrith

Tony Finau

Will Gordon

Chez Reavie

Lucas Glover

Gary Woodland

Justin Thomas

Nate Lashley

Cameron Young

Trey Mullinax

Par 4s 450-500 yards – There are six long par fours at Quail Hollow and four of them rank inside the top 5 most difficult holes. Being able to navigate this length par 4 will be crucial.

Patrick Cantlay

Max Homa

Justin Thomas

Viktor Hovland

Jason Day

Sam Ryder

Hayden Buckley

Taylor Pendrith

Sepp Straka

Ben An

Driving Distance — Off the tee and driving distance is an important piece at Quail Hollow. According to strokes gained data, tee game is almost as important as approach and that’s something we don’t often see.

Rory McIlroy

Cameron Young

Cameron Champ

Trevor Cone

Keith Mitchell

Ben An

Will Gordon

Ryan Brehem

Luke List

Joseph Bramlett

Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.

Jordan Spieth

Tony Finau

Patrick Rodgers

Xander Schauffele

Patrick Cantlay

Samuel Stevens

Sungjae Im

Rickie Fowler

Harry Hall

Wyndham Clark

Sand Saves — There is a strong correlation with high finishers in this event and their ability to get up and down from the sand during the tournament. Winners of the event have gained three times as many strokes on sand saves than top 5 finishers.

Ben Griffin

Jordan Spieth

Matt Kuchar

Danny Willett

Andrew Putnam

Si Woo Kim

SH Kim

Keith Mitchell

Adam Schenk

Denny McCarthy

Three Putt Avoidance – The scoring relative to par is difficult at Quail Hollow. The key is not going to be dropping as many birdies as possible like it was last week in Mexico. You have to navigate the course intelligently, avoiding big numbers and three putts on many holes.

Eric Cole

Sam Ryder

Chris Kirk

Ryan Armour

Keegan Bradley

Nate Lashley

Nicolas Echavarria

Mackenzie Hughes

Nick Watney

Andrew Putnam

Course History — The players with the most strokes gained per round at Quail Hollow

Rory McIlory

Joel Dahmen

Nick Watney

Jason Day

Keith Mitchell

Viktor Hovland

Emiliano Grillo

Matt Wallace

Rickie Fowler

Webb Simpson

SG: Long/Difficult Courses — Certain players pop when the conditions are tough and the course is long. With a couple of long Par 5s and several long Par 4s, players need length off the tee combined with a solid approach game from distance as well.

Rory McIlroy

Viktor Hovland

Xander Schauffele

Justin Thomas

Jason Day

Matt Kuchar

Tommy Fleetwood

Jordan Spieth

Collin Morikawa

Corey Conners

Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

Samuel Stevens

Gary Woodland

Taylor Moore

Chez Reavie

Patrick Rodgers

Fading

Callum Tarren

Max Homa

Kurt Kitayama

Will Gordon

Tom Kim

Stat Model Top 50 Rankings

1. Tony Finau	Fresh off the victory in Mexico, Finau rates out as the top dog thanks to top 6 rankings in approach, both key proximity distances, and overall form. He checks in at 15 on long/difficult courses too.
2. Viktor Hovland	Vik is a nice bet this week as he rates out well on long/difficult courses (2nd) and is 6th in Quail Hollow strokes gained per round. Course wise, he’s top ten in strokes gained off the tee and approach, Par 4s 450-500, 200+ proximity, and opportunities gained.
3. Rory McIlroy	Rory and Wells Fargo have become synonymous in my brain. He rates out first in both Quail Hollow form and long/difficult course form. He rates out top ten in approach and off the tee, driving distance, and opportunities gained
4. Xander Schauffele	Xander is currently 4th in form and 3rd on long/difficult courses. His approach stats are dynamite coming into the week, but does get dinged on his short game work over the last few weeks.
5. Collin Morikawa	Seems to have lost his winning ways, but still rates out really well. He’s 3rd in apporach and 15th off the tee as well as 12th from the 175-200 yard range. He’s also 8th on long/difficult tracks.
6. Patrick Cantlay	Cantlay fits the course well, ranking 8th in the short term and 5th long term. He’s also 4th in overall recent form, but he does lack in the Quail Hollow form category, missing the cut in his only appearance at this specific tournament.
7. Samuel Stevens	A real sleeper popping up in the top ten here, Stevens is currently 6th in form and rates out 2nd in course fit in the short term. It may be difficult for a first-timer to win at Quail Hollow, but he could make some noise on DraftKings or in the place market.
8. Gary Woodland	Woodland rates out similar to Xander. He has all the ball-striking metrics locked down. He’s top ten in approach, both proximity distances, opportunities gained, and the off the tee stats. He has faltered around the green and putting recently which is definitely required this week
9. Jordan Spieth	Spieth’s short game could be the key here. His statistical course fit is trending in the right direction over the last 50 rounds, he’s first in recent form, and 8th on long/difficult courses.
10. Rickie Fowler	Rickie has been dialed with the irons rating out top ten in both approach and opportunities gained. He’s also inside the top ten in current form and Quail Hollow form.
11. Wyndham Clark
12. Justin Thomas	Fourth on long/difficult tracks
13. Cameron Young	Ball-striking metrics and distance a big plus for Cam this week.
14. Tyrell Hatton
15. Patrick Rodgers	One of the top peaking players, has three top 20s in his last three starts.
16. Tommy Fleetwood
17. Taylor Moore
18. Sungjae Im	Gets dinged because of recent play, but rates out well on long/difficult tracks, recent form, and long term course fit
19. Shane Lowry
20. Cameron Davis
21. Si Woo Kim
22. Max Homa
23. Keegan Bradley
24. Emiliano Grillo
25. Davis Riley
26. Eric Cole
27. Matthew Fitzpatrick
28. Ben Martin
29. Chez Reavie
30. Hayden Buckley
31. Jason Day
32. Corey Conners
33. Nick Hardy
34. Joseph Bramlett
35. Alejandro Tosti
36. Matt Kuchar
37. Dylan Wu
38. Nate Lashley
39. Stephan Jaeger
40. Mark Hubbard
41. Keith Mitchell
42. Piercson Coody
43. Akshay Bhatia
44. Tom Kim
45. Ben An
46. Sam Ryder
47. Austin Smotherman
48. Luke List
49. Michael Kim
50. Denny McCarthy