Noonan’s 2026 Masters Outright Betting Picks & Course Preview | Betsperts Golf
Ryan Noonan
a month ago
I’m not alone, but this is my favorite event of the year. It’s just different. It means a little bit more, and everyone knows it. The nostalgia of it all. The pomp and circumstance. I love all of it. It’s familiar. It’s your favorite t-shirt fresh out of the dryer. Magnolia Lane. The azaleas. I can’t get enough of it.
If you haven’t already done so, please take a moment to check out my Masters Players Guide. It features a detailed look at all 91 golfers in this year’s field, including their recent history at Augusta National and their best career finish here, along with a statistical look at their recent form heading into the week.
Augusta National, a par-72 layout stretching out over 7,500 yards, is far more than just a collection of demanding holes. The course itself is a masterpiece of design, with meticulously crafted elevation changes that influence club selection and strategic thinking. The routing of holes offers a constant mix of risk-reward scenarios, forcing players to choose between conservative play and aggressive birdie attempts. Amen Corner is a prime example of fortunes being made or shattered in a single shot.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Augusta National course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Augusta National
- SG: Total (Long/Very Long Courses + Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- Carry Distance
- SG: ARG (short grass)
- SG: APP (Long Courses/SG: APP, difficult)
- SG: Par-5 + Par-5 Scoring Average
- 3-putt avoidance% (Fast greens)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. This week qualifies for that, obviously. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Because I’ve already spent hours upon hours writing and researching for this week, I’m using my notes from Masters Players Guide below for my selections.
Noonan’s Masters Outright Betting Picks
Jon Rahm (15/1)
Jon Rahm‘s 2025 major championship year was a step up from the disappointment of 2024, but he still didn’t truly contend for any of the titles on Sunday. He played very well at Oakmont (T7) and was in the mix heading into the final round at Quail Hollow before falling back, eventually finishing T8.
LIV Golf’s move to a standard 72-hole format has worked in Rahm’s favor, and the results have followed. His worst finish through five 2026 events is a solo fifth-place in Singapore. He’s finished first or second in the other four starts, gaining throughout the bag. His lack of wins on LIV is admittedly surprising (though he did get one this season), but this is still undoubtedly one of the top five golfers in the world.
Rahm’s career tee-to-green play at Augusta National is as good as anyone’s. His approach play was pretty poor by his lofty standards last year, and when you look back at his lead-in approach form, it was still excellent but far from his career baseline.
In 2023, Rahm’s last season on the PGA Tour, he gained an average of 0.93 strokes per round on approach. The past two seasons on LIV, Rahm’s been at 0.39 (2024) and 0.45 (2025). Again, good, but not great. He played six events before last year’s Masters, losing strokes on approach twice and never gaining more than 1.0 on average. This season, Rahm’s gaining an average of 0.98 strokes per round on approach, back up to his 2023 rates, and he gained 1.86 per round in Hong Kong and 2.23 in Singapore. That’s a lot of words and numbers to simply say, he’s headed to Augusta National in much better form than he did in 2025.
Caesars offered a 15/1 boost on Rahm to win over the weekend, something many of our staff and members were able to take advantage of.
Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Xander Schauffele played so well in 2024 that there was a moment when people were genuinely discussing him as a Player of the Year favorite. As in, over Scottie Scheffler. The footnotes of history will forget it, but the good news for Xander Schauffele is that Major Championship victories live forever.
Schauffele’s 2025 was sort of a failure to launch. He missed the West Coast swing and was out for two months with a rib injury and really never found his footing. The average PGA Tour pro would love to have a season where they average 0.89 strokes gained per round, but that’s miles off Schauffele’s recent baseline.
He found the winner’s circle again in the fall at the Baycurrent Classic, and his recent finishes, although he hasn’t won, have been extremely encouraging. A T7 finish at Riviera and T24 at Bay Hill were followed by two legit chances to win, at both The PLAYERS (3rd) and Valspar (T4). Schauffele’s ball-striking in 2026 is all the way back, and his game is firing on all cylinders.
Only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes tee-to-green on average at Augusta National over the past few years than Xander Schauffele. He’s finished inside the top ten in six of the past seven Masters, and it feels like a ‘when’ more than an ‘if’ for Schauffele’s green jacket. 20/1 is more than a fair enough price to see if this is the year, especially with question marks ahead of him on the odds board.
Cameron Young (23/1)
What a difference a year makes. Cameron Young missed the cut at last year’s Masters, but even though he had back-to-back top-10 finishes here in 2023 and 2024, the missed cut was far from a surprise. It was right in line with what he was doing every week. Heading into last year’s event, Young had missed the cut at the Genesis, Cognizant Classic, Arnold Palmer, and Valspar in the months leading up to the event. More proof that form supercedes even the best course history cases.
Well, if it’s form we’re looking for as we handicap the 2026 event, Cameron Young has it in spades. He had an exceptional end to the 2025 season, building off of his win at Sedgefield with excellent showings at all three playoff events. He was one of the U.S.’s bright spots at Bethpage, and he seems to have found another level this season, with three straight ball-striking clinics at Riviera (T7), Bay Hill (T3), and Sawgrass (1st).
Min Woo Lee (66/1)
Min Woo Lee‘s ceiling was never in question, but some had justifiable concerns about his ability to put four consecutive rounds together. He answered that for us last season with his win in Houston, but 2025 never really took off for him after that, even though it felt like it was about to.
2026, though, oh boy.
Min Woo has been in contention multiple times this season, finishing T6 or better in three of his seven 2026 starts, all of which were top-40 showings. While everyone’s turning the distance dial to 11, Min Woo has dialed it back for the sake of accuracy, and it’s paying off. Now, dialing it back means still averaging 186.32 mph. This isn’t Lucas Glover all of a sudden. That mark still ranks inside the top 10 in this week’s field; it’s just a dip down from his spray-and-pray 187-189 range from 2023 to 2025. As a result, he’s seen his fairway hit rate jump from 55.4% in 2025 to 62.1% this season. More importantly, Min Woo is gaining 0.27 strokes per round on approach, a 0.77 stroke improvement from 2025 (-0.50).
As I’ve said about a few of his peers in the field as well, Min Woo has loud traits. His short game chops are exceptional. If he’s been able to learn from his past Masters experience, and the approach gains are sticky, he’s going to be in the mix on Sunday. I fired on an off-market 66/1 after digging deeper into Min Woo’s 2026, and I’m glad I did now that he’s going off at 40/1 or shorter.
Nicolai Hojgaard (100/1)
Nicolai profiles well for Augusta National, with plus distance, high apex height, and the ability to shape shots both ways. He flashed in a big way back in 2024, where he was in contention late before dying on Amen Corner. He’s not the first and definitely won’t be the last. He’s taken a step forward, though, in 2026.
Nicolai is gaining throughout the bag this season. He’s made 12 starts worldwide since October’s Baycurrent Classic, and he’s finished inside the T24 nine times. Five of those were T6 or better, including a solo second-place finish in Houston the last time out. He gained an average of 0.78 strokes per round on the PGA Tour last season, and that number is up to 1.60 this season, the sixth-highest mark on the Tour. A win is a stretch, but at 100/1, he’s my favorite longshot of the week.
Favorite Finishing Position Bets
Ludvig Aberg (T10, ties included, +154)
There is reason to believe the market sentiment has cooled a bit on Ludvig after his disastrous Sunday at The PLAYERS and more questionable weekend play at the Valero, but I’m not really buying it. Truthfully, the market isn’t either, based on Aberg’s outright price.
Aberg’s major championship resume is eight starts deep, with an equal mix of solid finishes and missed cuts. He’s been outstanding in two appearances at Augusta National, a place that showcases his prodigious distance and elite long iron play. When looking at how the field has played in similar setups, you see that Aberg deserves his current spot on the odds board. Over the past two years, Aberg’s gained an average of 1.77 strokes per round (min. 16 rounds) on long courses, against strong fields and under difficult scoring conditions. That ranks fifth in this week’s field behind a usual cast of characters.
We often get caught up in the ‘next big thing’, the shiny new prospect who’s loaded with potential, and I’m as guilty of it as anyone. No one should be surprised if this is the year for Aberg. I have too many top-of-the-board tickets, so he’ll find his way on my card here instead.
Akshay Bhatia (T20, ties included, +146)
Akshay Bhatia‘s 2026 season got off to a rocky start, with back-to-back missed cuts at the AmEx and Farmers, but that’s a distant memory at this point. There’s perhaps no hotter player in the world since February. The 24-year-old finds himself ranked inside the top 20 in the world after a Signature Event win at Bay Hill last month, and he’s also contended in Phoenix (T3), Pebble (T6), Riviera (T16), and Sawgrass (T13).
Bhatia has taken a step forward in every aspect of the game. His short game has been a problem at times over the past two seasons, but he’s gained an average of 0.9 strokes on and around the greens this season, up from 0.05 in 2025. I’m not reading much into his missed cut at the Indian Open. Sure, I’d rather have seen him in Houston or back in San Antonio, where he won in 2024, as a prep event for the Masters, but I understand the pull to go to India and have that experience.
Bhatia’s early-season success has impacted his outright price in the futures market, so if you didn’t get an early number, you’re best sitting out now and seeing if he drifts prior to teeing off on Thursday. Ironically, his short game has been excellent in his eight Augusta National rounds to date, so if he can keep that trending and show up with his standard ball-striking game, he’ll post his best Masters finish to date.
To Make the Cut Parlay (+200, Bet365)
Seems too easy, right?!
