Pat Mayo
7 months ago
Mayo, Geoff Fienberg, and Tim Anderson recap the 2025 Ryder Cup, then Ryan Noonan joins to give his thoughts on USA vs Europe, then get into the 2025 Sanderson Farms Picks, Bets & Fantasy Golf Preview.
Comp Courses: Valspar, Houston, Rocket Mortgage
You can load up my (and others’) key stat weightings on The Rabbit Hole, the “View Rankings” drop-down. I’ve posted my weightings below as well.
It’s been a rough go for Min Woo stateside since his win in Houston, ending the season with a lone Top 45 finish over his final 10 starts. So, he took off to Europe to find his game. And he did. Two starts overseas resulted in a T11/T5 run, which is actually a disappointment for him, considering he was in the final group in France on Sunday. Encouraging his game is trending back up, though. He’s never played CC of Jackson, but on paper it seems pretty great for him, especially as a comp to where he’s experienced success. Mash it off the tee, don’t worry where it goes, and ride a hot short game and putter. While a frigid flat stick was one of the causes of his issues (losing on the greens in eight of those final 10 PGA starts), that Euro trip had him gaining BIGLY back in the positives putting. Lee’s been a high ceiling, low floor putter for a long time now, something he has in common with many of the past Sanderson Farms winners.
Crushed through Europe over the last month before hitting a roadblock at Wentworth. Still, a T2/T13/T2 previous to that missed cut.
No player has gained more strokes on average over the past six months than Matt Wallace. It’s only resulted in two spike performances (T3 at 3M, T2 Omega Masters), but it seems like he’s constantly hovering around the leaderboard enough that a few breaks going his way on a week can propel him to the top.
The off-the-tee struggles may end up crushing him in the long run, but he’s had a lot of success at spray-and-pray courses in 2025, while the wedges and putter remain operating at an elite level for this field. Valimaki picked up a pair of Top 10s during the Euro swing (T2/T8) and sits inside the Top 20 in this field in approach putting and Par 4 birdies or better in 2025.
Guy is an elite ball striker. Full stop. Guy also putts like he has triple vision. Over his past 24 rounds, Zee German is losing a brisk 1.02 SG: PUTT… PER ROUND. It’s like he’s actively trying to miss the hole. But what my question presupposes is: What if he doesn’t this week? Look, Kevin Yu and Luke List have won this event the past two years. It’s possible. Maybe not plausible, but possible.
His past five starts? MC/MC/Win/MC/MC. He’s weirdly morphed into a South African version of the old Si Woo Kim. Which guy are we gonna get? Fuck knows. But at triple-digit odds in a weaker field, it’s worth a gamble to find out.
There’s been an incredible amount of crossover success between CC of Jackson and Copperhead. Riley has been awful since his T2 at the PGA Championship (that was in May for those keeping track) but maybe a friendly venue is good enough to reignite some upside at long odds. Riley has two Top 10s and a Top 20 in four Valspar starts. It hasn’t translated over to Sanderson Farms (to date), but he was FRL in 2022 before finishing T19.
Over the last eight years, here are the best per round players at Copperhead (minimum of eight rounds.)
