2026 Truist Championship One and Done Picks: Rory Returns to Quail Hollow
Andy Molitor
7 days ago
The Truist Championship is back at Quail Hollow for the first time since 2024, and the one-and-done calculus this week is the inverse of last week. Scottie Scheffler is sitting this one out to rest up for the PGA Championship, and Rory McIlroy is making his first start since winning his second Masters.
That puts Rory squarely back in the conversation as a pretty popular pick with the signature-event-sized purse. He has won this event four times at Quail Hollow and is the clear favorite. If you have him saved, the case is obvious. If not, there is still plenty of value in this 72-player no-cut field with a $20 million purse.
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Why This Week Plays Differently
Quail Hollow is a par 71 stretching 7,583 yards with Bermuda and Poa trivialis greens. The Green Mile (holes 16, 17, and 18) remains one of the toughest closing stretches in golf, and history says the winner here is almost always inside the top 10 in tee-to-green for the week.
The field also gives you a real edge. Eight of the top 10 in the world are here, but Scheffler being absent opens up the top of the board in a way you do not usually get at a signature event.
Some data worth looking into this week:
Total Driving and Length
Quail Hollow is the fifth-longest course on Tour this season, and the par 4s play long enough that you cannot fake your way around without distance. That said, accuracy matters more here than at Doral because the rough is thicker and the angles into Quail’s greens punish a missed fairway. I pulled the last six months of driving data and sorted it by total driving.
Long-Iron Approach Play
Multiple holes here demand a long-iron approach, and proximity from 200+ yards is one of the cleanest predictors of success at Quail Hollow. Players who can stop a 5-iron on these greens separate quickly. I pulled six months of overall proximity data and sorted by 200+ only.
Bermuda Putting and Around the Green
Around the green, play matters more than usual on the Green Mile, where any miss can spiral. Bermuda putting comfort is also a real factor, and I went back 18 months on the surface to get a clean read.
One and Done Targets
Not going to be overthinking things this week, I need you to decide who you like best among the top 4-5 favorites. Some of this decision-making may be based on whether you want to save a name for an event down the road, but considering how well the top players fit here, it’s a tough sell to go down the board.
Rory McIlroy is certainly in play. Scottie’s not here, and he’s crushed this course in the past. Saving him for the PGA next week at Aronimink is the only counter, and that is defensible, too. If you have already used Rory, here are the names worth considering. It’s not likely to be a week to get too cute, and staying near the top of the board feels like the play.
The Short List
Young has already won The Players this year, and his ball-striking profile is exactly what Quail Hollow rewards.
Schauffele finished runner-up at Quail Hollow in both 2023 and 2024, which is not a coincidence. SUPER high floor
Crazy form, gotta take advantage at some point.
Had some rough patches, but this T2G play should have him in contention at a course like this.
Apologies for the boring answer this week (take Min Woo Lee if you want/need to get weird, I guess)
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