2026 Masters One and Done Picks: Cashing in at Augusta
Andy Molitor
a month ago
You have been saving your big names for a reason.
The Masters is a $20 million tourney, which means the calculus on one-and-done strategy flips entirely from the week prior. This is not a week to be conservative. The Masters is one of the events you have been saving your elite names for all season. If you have Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Xander Schauffele left, this is a legitimate week to deploy them. The course is unusually predictive, the field is elite, but you can still only use one name.
The good news is that Augusta National has one of the clearest player profiles on the entire calendar. The bad news is that the predictability cuts both ways. If you use the wrong name this week, you likely will watch a big name only earn you middling money as they finish T11, as another chunk of the pool moves up with the winning name. No pressure, bud.
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Form
Augusta National is the most predictive course on the entire PGA Tour in terms of course history correlation, nearly double the second highest venue. That said, recent form still matters enormously because you need players who are executing right now, not players whose best Augusta result came three years ago in soft conditions. The ideal target is a player with at least one strong prior result here combined with positive momentum over the last eight to twelve rounds. Seven of the last ten Masters winners had already won a tournament that calendar year. Eight of the last ten had a top 12 finish in the previous month. Players trending upward with their approach play and short game are worth a significant premium over those coasting on reputation or course history alone. I sorted by last eight rounds rolling in here.
Approach Play
Unlike most tour stops where one specific yardage range dominates, Augusta over-indexes on mid to long iron approach shots. The course plays over 7,500 yards with ten par fours all measuring over 440 yards, and players hit roughly two more long iron shots per round here than at an average tour stop. Proximity from 150 to 200 yards is the specific range that matters most, capturing performance on the exact shots that decide scoring on those long par fours. With only 55 to 60 percent of greens hit in regulation, the approach game is the single biggest separator at this course week after week. In each of the last five years the winner ranked inside the top 10 in approach play for the week. I filtered out any rounds where gaining on APP or GIR% was classified as “easy” and looked at the last 12 months sorted by GIR%.
Par 5 Scoring
The four par fives are the only holes at Augusta with a scoring average under par and they are often where tournaments are decided. Over the last 15 years Masters winners have played the par fives a combined 143 under par. Hole 13 was extended to 545 yards in 2023 and now demands a right-to-left tee shot to realistically reach in two. Hole 15 punishes the layup with a treacherous downhill wedge over water. The ability to reach these holes in two with an iron rather than a fairway wood or lay up is a significant advantage that compounds over 72 holes. Par 5 birdie or better rate is a meaningful signal this week and worth pulling filtered to difficult par 5 scoring conditions.
One and Done Suggestions for the Masters
Ownership in one-and-done pools this week will chase Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite and Rory McIlroy on defending champion narrative. Both are completely defensible. If you have them available and have been saving them, this is a legitimate week to use one. The better differentiating plays sit one tier lower in players who have legitimate winning upside, strong course fit, and will appear in fewer pools than the obvious chalk names at the very top of the board.
The Shortlist
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm. If you want to use one of the biggest names here and you’re feeling ok about them, knock yourself out. Elite players tend to win here. Figure out which of these guys you like the best and roll with it.
That said, there are a couple of other options worth looking at.
Young won the Players Championship this year, has two top 10s in four Masters appearances, elite off the tee, top 25 approach play, a 95th percentile putter, and has deliberately skipped events since the Players to prepare specifically for Augusta.
He won the Tour Championship last year, removing the only real narrative argument against him. His game is built for this course: elite approach play, exceptional creativity around the greens from tight lies, and a high ball flight that holds these firm bentgrass surfaces.
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