2025 Rocket Classic- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
a year ago
There’s no way to sugarcoat things here; the North Course at Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest layouts on the PGA Tour rotation. It’s a traditional parkland venue with tree-lined fairways and flat topography. The Par-72 layout comes in at 7,370 yards, and without the penal areas off the tee or on approach, scoring opportunities will be plentiful. Since the course does not penalize poor shots, there is little separation between great and below-average tee-to-green play. We’ve seen a wide array of golf styles compete at this event, so there’s not a perfect golfer archetype to hone in on this week, though those with plus distance will be at an advantage.
This is a driver-heavy setup, with the field using driver off the tee roughly 10-15% more often than a standard PGA Tour event. We also see a greens in regulation rate that hovers around 73%, with GIR% from the fairway and rough significantly higher than an average event. It’s easy to understand why we see such a high GIR% here, considering 31% of the approach shots at Detroit GC come from the 50-125-yard range. We’re looking at a lot of holes where it’s driver-wedge-birdie, which is why the scoring average hovers around 1.7 strokes under par with a winning score in the 18-25 under-par range.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
Podcast: Apple | Spotify
YouTube: Betsperts Golf
Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy and Easy)
- SG: BS (Driver Heavy, Missed Fairway Penalty Low)
- Driving Distance
- SG: BS (Very Easy/Easy OTT + Very Easy/Easy APP)
- Birdie or Better%
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Rocket Mortgage Classic Outright Targets
Cameron Young (30/1)
I have more golfers on my card than I normally do, but I’m fishing at the bottom of the barrel a lot, with most plays 100/1 or greater. I’m taking two shots near the top of the board, with the first being Cameron Young.
I’m new to the Cameron Young bandwagon, and while I’d love to jump off after a poor showing over the week at the Travelers, this seems like a bad time to pull the plug. Few golfers in this field have the distance/putting chops that Young’s flashing of late, and he’s finished T6 and T2 in his two previous Detroit Golf Club starts.
Luke Clanton (40/1)
I’ve bet Luke Clanton at shorter prices against better fields, so I can’t be on the sidelines here. This is the event that put Clanton on the map for casual PGA Tour fans last season, with a T10 finish. His strokes gained profile is a bit inconsistent right now, but I believe in the talent long-term, and I like seeing him gaining strokes on approach in four straight starts. If we see another solid putting week like his 0.59 strokes per round last week in Connecticut, he should contend.
Jake Knapp (90/1)
We’re a bit removed from the spring swing, where Jake Knapp posted multiple strong finishes, but he profiles well for Detroit Golf Club. He’s generally a good putter but struggled a bit on these greens last season, but he was seventh in SG: Ball-striking, just behind Cam Young and Luke Clanton.
I used the Rabbit Hole to look at who’s performed best on courses with easy scoring conditions, where it’s easy to gain strokes ball striking, and the field went driver-heavy off the tee due to the lack of missed fairway penalty. Over the past two years, Jake Knapp leads the field in average strokes gained per round.
Michael Thorbjornsen (100/1)
Our guy, Ron Klos, is boots on the ground in Detroit this week and was able to chat with Michael Thorbjornsen and his caddie, JJ Jakovac, about the wrist injury that led to the RBC Canadian withdrawal. Thor was trending well heading into June, having made four straight cuts and contending at the Corales Puntacana Championship (T2). He’s gained strokes ball-striking in six straight starts, and this driver-heavy, birdie-demanded setup serves him well.
Jesper Svensson (100/1)
After rating out eighth in my model this week, Jesper Svensson was a no-brainer click for me at 100/1. His skill set is the ideal fit for navigating Detroit GC. He ranks fourth in this field in driving distance and also cracks the top ten in birdie or better rate and wedge proximity (50-100 yards), a key recipe for a strong finish here.
Consistency isn’t his strength, which is why he’s 100/1, but he’s flashed a high-upside ceiling this season. He’ll just need to piece it together for four rounds. The putter has been wildly inconsistent, but the ceiling outcomes are what we should be looking for when shopping this deep down the odds board. He’s just 59th in this field in the percentage of rounds where he’s strokes gained positive putting (50%), but he’s ninth in the percentage of rounds where he’s gained 2+ strokes putting (20.83%).
Lee Hodges (110/1)
Lee Hodges has played his best golf on driver-heavy courses this season, posting a T9 at Torrey Pines, a T11 at Memorial Park, and a T9 last time out in Canada. His lone career victory came at the 2023 3M Open, a track that has a lot of similarities to Detroit GC.
Hodges isn’t especially long off the tee, but he’ll still be left with a lot of short approach shots this week, and he’s a sneaky-good wedge player. He putted poorly this spring but gained nearly a full shot per round last time out in Canada. If he can continue to roll it well, I think he has a lot of upside this week.
Matt McCarty (150/1)
Matt McCarty has a similar profile to Lee Hodges, except he’s a far more consistent putter. The Black Desert Classic winner is among the top 12 putters in the field on similar bentgrass/poa greens over the past two seasons, and he’s an exceptional wedge player as well, ranking fourth in proximity from 50-100 yards over the past 36 rounds.
A poor showing at Oakmont is dragging down a lot of his rolling strokes gained metrics, but that’s why using the Rabbit Hole to contextualize this week’s test is such a better way to handicap things. McCarthy was a popular sleeper heading into the U.S. Open after his T4 at the RBC Canadian Open. McCarty won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer before his swing season win in Utah, so he’s capable of going low on easy setups.
Antoine Rozner (150/1)
Antoine Rozner has made the cut in 12 consecutive starts, and while he’s rarely teeing off late on the weekend, he’s trending up heading into Detroit. The Frenchman is an emerging member of “Team No Putt,” posting terrific ball-striking numbers that are just begging for a field-average putting performance.
He’s posted competitive finishes at similar venues, where his plus-distance and strong wedge game can shine. He’s gained strokes putting in three of his past four starts. If he can do that again, he’ll flirt with a top-20 finish or better.
