2025 RBC Canadian Open- Noonan’s Outright Picks and Preview

The PGA Tour debuts the 2025 RBC Canadian Open at a new venue, TPC Toronto, which is slated to host the next two Canadian Opens as Golf Canada relocates its headquarters to the Alton, Ontario area, approximately 50 miles northwest of downtown Toronto. Whenever we’re flying semi-blind into handicapping a new course, things can get a little tricky, but I think there are two ways to approach it.

Over the past few years, several new courses have been introduced for various reasons. TPC Potomac, Shadow Creek, The Summit Club, Black Desert, and, most recently, Philly Cricket Club, to name a few. One option you can use is to back a variety of play styles, acknowledging that we don’t know what we don’t know and leaning on recent form over any perceived course fit leans. Or, the exact opposite. When you feel like the intel is solid and it’s pretty clear how the course is going to play based on player interviews, practice rounds, etc., then lean on that and build a card around that specific golfer archetype.

Based on what we know about TPC Toronto at this time, via flyovers and a breakdown of the par-70, nearly 7,400-yard scorecard, it leads me to option B, the specific golfer archetype. I think distance will be a sizable advantage this week, so I’m building my card with that in mind.

For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.

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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• Driving Distance + Carry Distance
• Recent Form (SG: T2G Last 16 Rounds/SG: BS Last 36 Rounds)
• SG: Total (Long and Very Long Courses, Last 2 Years)
• SG: BS (Driver-Heavy Courses, Last 2 Years)
• Par 4 Birdie or Better% (Long and Very Long Courses)

There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.

Noonan’s RBC Canadian Outright Targets

Taylor Pendrith (30/1)

I’m usually reluctant to back a Canuck at the Canadian Open because of the extra pressure and media demands on them during the week, but Nick Taylor‘s win back in 2023 sort of took the pressure off the collective group to get a Canadian over the finish line for the first time in decades.

Pendrith appears to have the most familiarity with TPC Toronto. “I’m especially excited for this one,” said Pendrith. “I’ve spent a lot of time at TPC Toronto, played a couple of Mackenzie Tour events there. I’ve practiced there a lot and played with family and friends. It’s a beautiful venue, and I can’t wait to get back.” He’s also an exceptional course fit and enters with pristine form, having finished T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 last week at the Memorial.

Pendrith led the Memorial field in SG: APP and ranked second in SG: T2G. He also performed well in my off-the-tee model, which focused on distance and performance on driver-heavy setups, which I anticipate will be similar to what we’ll see this week in Ontario. I get the sense that this will be a popular outright selection this week, but at 30 or better, I like it quite a bit.

Luke Clanton (50/1)

We’ve seen a handful of starts for Luke Clanton in PGA Tour events, but this will be his first start as an official member of the Tour. Clanton earned his PGA Tour card back in March after his T18 at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches ,but delayed his debut because he wanted to continue competing for Florida State until the season finished. His team fell short of their season-long goals, but Clanton won three individual competitions since securing his Tour card and has won 11 times in the past 3+ seasons as an amateur.

In his limited starts on the PGA Tour, Clanton has showcased elite ball-striking skills, with plus distance and accuracy off the tee. Clanton has played 46 rounds on the PGA Tour and gained an average of 1.37 strokes tee-to-green in those starts. That would rank 11th worldwide over the past six months, ahead of Sepp Straka, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele, just to name a few.

The price at 35/1 was rich at open, but a few books have floated prices in the 40-50 range, and that’s palatable for me, given Clanton’s upside and fit for what I’m expecting from TPC Toronto.

Cameron Young (75/1)

I haven’t bet on Cam Young to win a golf tournament since the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills. I don’t have the battle scars that most of you do, scars that have callused over after many non-competitive performances from Young over the past 2+ seasons. For some, it might be difficult to back him, but the talent is undeniable, and he’s suddenly playing better golf as of late, if you can look at it with an unbiased eye.

Young missed the cut at the Masters but has three T25 or better finishes in his past five PGA Tour starts, including starts at Philly Cricket (T7) and Muirfield Village (T25), which have similar off-the-tee demands as TPC Toronto.

I placed the bet before Young punched his ticket to Oakmont during Monday’s U.S. Open qualifier, but I’m encouraged to see the strong recent form continue. Questions about how 36+ holes on Monday impact his focus and preparation for TPC Toronto are fair, but Young is hovering around 60th on the FedEx Cup points list. He can’t afford to mail it in this week simply because he’s already in next week’s field.

Ryan Fox (80/1)

Form is fickle, so it’s difficult to line up a player’s strong recent performance with when it’s going to fall off, but Ryan Fox is one of the streakiest players in the world, and his recent form is top-notch. Fox missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open and then followed it up with two disappointing showings at Corales (T59) and the Byron Nelson (T60).

Fox teed it up the next week at the Alt-Field event in Myrtle Beach and took it down in a three-man playoff. The form rolled over the much tougher tests against significantly stronger fields at the PGA Championship (T28) and Memorial (T20), but Fox continued to gain throughout the bag.

Though at a different course, Fox was tied for the 36-hole lead in Canada last season before finishing T7. Golf Canada is looking to replicate previous Canadian Open setups, so that bodes well for Fox’s chances at keeping his current hot streak alive. The price is also very palatable considering his upside, and he’s a strong look in the finishing position markets as well.

Chris Gotterup (85/1)

Chris Gotterup is very much in the mold of the rest of my card. He brings strong recent form to Canada, along with a ton of distance off the tee and a recent invite to Oakmont after a strong Monday qualifying performance at Canoe Brook CC, where he played his last 10 holes 6-under par, highlighted by an eagle on the par-5 sixth hole.

It’s been an up-and-down ride for the much-heralded New Jersey product who spent time at both Rutgers and Oklahoma before turning pro. Like Ryan Fox, we’ve seen Gotterup stack strong finishes consecutively. Last year, he played well at the Zurich (T11), then posted a T24 at Craig Ranch, only to win the following week in Myrtle Beach.

He had a run of five T18 or better finishes in six starts prior to his T28 last time out at Colonial, which is not a course I’d expect him to play well at, but his iron play was terrific. Most of his strong finishes, including early-season T25s at Torrey Pines, Puerto Rico, and Memorial Park, all came on driver-heavy setups that require distance to win.