2024 Masters Betting Card Picks and Preview
Ryan Noonan
2 years ago
I’m not alone, but this is my favorite event of the year. It’s just different. It means a little bit more, and everyone knows it. The nostalgia of it all. The pomp and circumstance. I love all of it. It’s familiar. It’s your favorite t-shirt fresh out of the dryer. Magnolia Lane. The azaleas. Eldrick on Sunday (maybe). I can’t get enough of it.
If you haven’t already done so, please take a moment to check out my Masters Players Guide. It features a quick look at every player in this year’s field, including their recent history at Augusta National and their best career finish here, along with a statistical look at their recent form heading into the week.
Augusta National, a Par 72 layout stretching out over 7,500 yards, is far more than just a collection of demanding holes. The course itself is a masterpiece of design, with meticulously crafted elevation changes that influence club selection and strategic thinking. The routing of holes offers a constant mix of risk-reward scenarios, forcing players to choose between conservative play and aggressive birdie attempts. Amen Corner is a prime example of fortunes being made or shattered in a single shot.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Per Ron, here’s an important tidbit about Augusta National:
Over the past five events, the average score has been 0.95 strokes over par, which ranks as the third-toughest annual course on Tour. Only one of the par-3 holes plays over 180 yards, yet due to the bunkering and difficult green complexes, they rank as the second-toughest group of par-3s, averaging 0.15 strokes over par.
The four par-5s are the holes that bring the most excitement to the course each year. One of the shortest groups of par-5s on Tour, averaging only 564 yards per hole, each is reachable in two shots and averages a birdie or better rate at 39.2%. With eagle chances possible on each, along with danger areas, they are the essence of risk-reward holes. This is especially true on the 13th and 15th holes, where stray approaches will be eaten by the water hazards.
Since 2009, 72% of scoring has come on the par-5 holes. Since 2017, Masters champions have been a combined 60-under on the par-5s.
As important as it is for players to score on the par-5s, it is just as vital for them to survive the par-4s. This is demonstrated by the fact that the past nine winners of this event have ranked an average of second in the field for par-4 scoring. Rated as the toughest set of par-4s on Tour, they play to an average of 0.19 strokes over par.
This is a unique event in a multitude of ways, but one of the important elements this week is the field. It’s a small field, but when you eliminate the amateurs and Champions Tour-eligible past winners, this really is closer to a field of 70 or so. The cut line is the top 50 and ties, so take that into consideration when making finishing positions or make-the-cut bets.
We have partnered with Vivid Picks to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached 2024 season at Betsperts Golf, plus a 100% deposit match up to $250! Click here to learn more!
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
Noonan’s Masters Betting Targets
Scottie Scheffler
It’s difficult to recommend a bet on Scottie Scheffler at his current odds, but I’m guessing watching this year’s event without a piece of Scheffler will be a miserable experience. I don’t recommend it.
He’s separating from his peers, even if you only consider his peers to be the other top 20 golfers on the planet. For conversation’s sake, let’s just consider his peer group to be the other two “Big 3” golfers, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. Since the start of 2023, McIlroy and Rahm have each gained strokes tee-to-green (T2G) in roughly 75% of their rounds. McIlroy ranks second behind Scheffler, gaining 1+ strokes T2G in 62.16% of his measured rounds, while Rahm has done the same 56.25% of the time.
Since the start of 2023, Scottie Scheffler has gained strokes T2G in 93.14% of his rounds and has gained 1+ 84.31% of the time. In fact, Scheffler has gained 2+ strokes T2G at a 64.71% clip, which tops McIlroy’s rate of gaining 1+ strokes. Read that again!!
Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet, and he’s playing at a level that we haven’t seen in about 20 years. Yeah, like You Know Who. He’s been inside the top 10 in 10 of his past 11 starts, with three wins, and his game is perfectly suited for what it takes to win at Augusta National.
To Win: +450 DraftKings
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele is one of the most consistent golfers on the planet. He’s a top-20 machine, and he finishes inside the top five at the same rate that other above-average golfers on the Tour finish inside the top 20. He’s played 36 events since his last win at the 2022 Scottish Open, finishing inside the top 10 in 20 of his 36 starts, 13 of which were T5 or better. That level of consistency is incredibly impressive.
Schauffele’s Masters history is strong, with three top-10 finishes in the past three events, including a runner-up finish to Tiger Woods back in 2019.
Schauffele’s driver has been a weapon this season. He’s gained a half-stroke more per round off the tee than in 2023 (+0.84 from +0.34), adding distance and improving his accuracy. It doesn’t appear to be by accident, either. His club head speed is up, and that added distance helps massively at ANGC. Dating back to 2019, Schauffele ranks third in this week’s field in SG:Total at Augusta, and I believe the improvements off the tee are going to pay dividends this week.
- To Win: 18/1 Caesars
- Top 10: +160 (ties in full) DraftKings
Hideki Matsuyama
The 2021 Masters champ comes into this year’s event in excellent form, with four straight T12 or better finishes, including a dominant Sunday performance against a signature event field at Riviera to take home The Genesis Invitational. Strong showings followed at Bay Hill (T12) and Sawgrass (T6), with Matsuyama’s world-class ball-striking on full display. He continued the trend with a T7 last week at TPC San Antonio.
I’m encouraged by the increase in distance for Matsuyama, who’s back up to his 2021 range after it had dipped for three straight years and fell below Tour average last season. He’s still the most likely golfer on Tour to break your heart with a last-minute withdrawal, but that feels unlikely this week, and the distance spike is a sign that he’s back to full strength.
He’s finished T16 or better in four straight Masters appearances, making him a solid T20 look this week. His outright odds were cut in half after his performance at Riviera, but he’s a viable option in this range, given his current form.
- To Win: 25/1
- Top 10: +190 (ties in full) DraftKings
Will Zalatoris
A second-place finish in your Masters debut is a hell of a way to make an entrance. Following it up with a T6 the following year is equally impressive. Unfortunately, a back injury left Will Zalatoris out of last year’s event and most of the season, but I’m interested to see if the big game hunter is ready to contend at another major.
Willy Z’s electric ball-striking appears to have picked up right where he left off, which is impressive considering that he was away from competitive golf for nine months. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight starts, and the switch to a broomstick putter has brought mixed results, though I’d call it a win overall despite his struggles last time out in Houston.
He finished T2 at Riviera and would likely have won it if not for Hideki Matsuyama’s record-setting day. He followed that up with a strong showing at Bay Hill in his next start, finishing T4 while flashing his standard ball-striking prowess. There were some big Zalatoris numbers in the market back in the fall when we didn’t know his 2024 status, but those are long gone after the way he’s played in 2024. I’ll be interested to see if his poor putting performance in Houston causes his outright number to drift ever so slightly, but overall, I expect him to be competitive again this week.
- To Win: 35/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +105 (ties in full) DraftKings
Sahith Theegala
Sahith Theegala is probably one of my favorite golfers to watch, but he rarely finds his way onto my betting card. However, that changes this week.
He’s still just 26 years old and immensely talented, but his game has lacked consistency up until his recent run. There’s a ton of upside in his game, and he’ll flash it on the greens, on approach, and off the tee, but rarely ever at the same time.
Theegala is definitely in the midst of his best run since turning pro, with four T9 or better finishes this season, three of which have come in Signature Events against the best fields on the PGA Tour. This is just his second appearance at Augusta, but I expect him to play well this week.
- To Win: 60/1 FanDuel
- Top 20: +145 (ties in full) DraftKings