2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow – Preview

After Tony Finau outlasted Jon Rahm and converted his third straight 54-hole lead into another business-like victory at the Mexico Open, the PGA Tour shifts back to the States to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship and a much stronger field in what is already the eighth designated event of the year.

Just southeast of downtown Charlotte, Quail Hollow Club has hosted a PGA Tour event since 2003. Last year’s event was moved to TPC Potomac in Maryland to prepare the course for the Presidents Cup. It is a classical parkland course that is a favorite among players. Along with immaculate conditions played on scenic rolling terrain, it’s known as one of the most pleasant walks in golf. The course has a natural flow to it as players step off of one green and the next tee box is just yards away.

A championship-level layout, Quail Hollow is famous for the prestigious events which have been held here including, recently, the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup. It is known for its arduous final three holes known as the “Green Mile” which is the toughest closing stretch on Tour and literally plays a mile long.

As with any course that has hosted major events, every facet of a golfer’s game will be tested this week. As recent past winners demonstrate, including Rory McIlroy (three times), Max Homa, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, distance off the tee is especially advantageous this week. Other important traits that matter include total driving, long-iron approach play from 175+ yards, and being able to scramble for pars on some of the toughest green complexes that players will face all year.

The Field

While this will most likely be the strongest Wells Fargo field in its history, it will be the weakest designated event field this far as ten of the eligible 43 players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings are taking the week off and bypassing the opportunity of competing for a $20 million purse. This includes the top two players in the world, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Others who are joining them to “rest” this week include Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, and Lucas Herbert. Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Aaron Wise are also out due to injury or other reasons.

Rory McIlroy leads the group of favorites as he returns to action for the first time since missing the cut at the Masters. He is a three-time winner at Quail Hollow, including in 2021 which was the last time this event was held at this course. Last year’s Wells Fargo champion held at TPC Potomac, Max Homa, also won this event at Quail Hollow in 2019 for his first career PGA victory.

Quail Hollow Club – History

Quail Hollow was laid out on what once was the largest dairy farm in North Carolina and was named for the plethora of quail that inhabited the property. Built on a 270-acre tract of land, architect George Cobb completed the course in 1961 with the goal of capturing the beauty and natural terrain of the Piedmont region. It hosted the Kemper Open on the PGA Tour from 1969 through 1979 followed by the Senior Tour’s Paine Webber Invitational from 1983 through 1989.

Arnold Palmer helped to redesign the layout in 1986. Tom Fazio made further alterations in 1997 and again in 2003 to prepare the course for PGA Tour competition. The club stepped back into the limelight that year with the PGA Tour’s Wachovia Championship. Over time, it was renamed the Quail Hollow Championship and is now the Wells Fargo Championship.

From 2014 to 2016, in preparation for the 2017 PGA Championship, Fazio renovated much of the course including a complete rebuild of all 18 greens and converting the putting surfaces to Champion Bermuda turf. Tee boxes were shifted and more than 100 trees were removed to allow for more sunlight and clearer sight lines. Four holes were also significantly altered and lengthened to further strengthen Quail Hollow’s championship credentials. The club also hosted the 2022 Presidents Club in which the U.S. team soundly defeated the International team 17.5 to 12.5.

Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course History (2017-2021)

According to DataGolf, course history at Quail Hollow is the 6th most predictive on Tour.

Course Features

Measuring 7,538 yards, Quail Hollow is a tree-lined parkland par-71 layout. Similar to courses like Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, it presents the challenging combination of length and difficult scoring conditions. It is both the fourth longest and fourth toughest scoring course in the annual Tour rotation. It also has the sixth longest combined par 4s and par 5s on Tour.

Quail Hollow features tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain, strategically-placed water hazards, and firm undulating greens on approach. Though there are only 61 bunkers (11th fewest), they are well-utilized being laid out near landing zones along the fairways and often in the direct line of approach shots around the greens.

With a SubAir system below the greens, tournament officials gradually firm up the greens throughout the week so that by Sunday it becomes very tough to hold the green surface. This is another reason why long drivers of the ball have an advantage at Quail Hollow. More distance off the tee equates to higher-lofted and softer landing approach shots into firm tricky pin positions.

Before the 2016 renovation by Tom Fazio, Quail Hollow played nowhere near as tough as it does now. Between 2010 through 2015, the average score was 15-under with a birdie or better rate of 19%. In the three editions since the alterations, the average score has been 12-under with a birdie or better rate of only 17%. Basically, there are five scoring holes at Quail Hollow – the three par 5s and the two semi-driveable sub-350 yard par 4s. To have success on this course, players will need to birdie as many of those as possible and then hold on for dear life on the other 13 holes which all average over-par.

From an agronomic standpoint, the base turf at Quail Hollow is 100% Bermuda. In the fall of each year, groundskeepers seed the course with Bermuda, a warm-weather grass, and with rye, a grass meant for colder seasons. Right after the conclusion of the Wells Fargo Championship, a herbicide is used to kill the ryegrass and let the Bermuda grow for the summer.

With Charlotte being in the mid-Atlantic region, the beginning of May is still too cool for much of the Bermuda to break through the overseed. Thus the rough this week is ryegrass measuring at 2″ while the greens are overseeded Poa trivialis. The greens are typically on the faster side starting out at around a 12 on the stimpmeter and increasing to a speedy 13 by Sunday’s final round. Greens are on the larger side averaging over 6,500 square feet bringing in scrambling and three-putt avoidance as other key stats this week.

Hole Preview

Architecturally, Quail Hollow is known as a rather bland course with few exciting holes that stand out. Most of the first 15 holes are rather straightforward and repetitive. The course is all right there in front of you with nothing tricked up about it.

As a par-71 track, Quail Hollow only has three par 5s which gives players one less opportunity to score. All three have a birdie or better rate of at least 34% and are must-birdie holes for players to have a chance to contend. On the opposite end, each of the four par-3s plays over par to a combined average of 3.14. The par-3 6th hole is an absolute beast, playing over 250 yards for some rounds.

While there are two driveable par 4s (8th and 14th), five of them measure over 480 yards. The first hole, which was lengthened as part of Fazio’s redesign, sets the early tone as a strenuous 495-yard par 4 which has a bogey-or-worse rate of 28%.

Quail Hollow might be most infamously known for its three-hole closing stretch known as the “Green Mile”. Each hole of the white-knuckle stretch features dangerous water hazards, strategically placed sand traps, tricky elevation changes and firm undulating green complexes. Tour player, Brandt Snedeker said, “It’s got to be one of the toughest stretches in golf. There’s no bail-out on any of the holes. You just have to suck it up and get through it.”

“Those are three really brutal finishing holes,” Tour veteran Adam Scott said. “If you can survive those holes and win, you’ve certainly proved that to yourself because they’re so demanding. There is no breather.” The three holes have combined to play a staggering 0.27 strokes over par with a bogey-or-worse rate of 29.5% compared to a birdie rate of only 8.4%.

Strokes Gained Analysis

Off the Tee

With an average driving distance of 300 yards, combined with the course’s length, lack of hazards, and minimal rough, the course sets up perfectly for being driver-heavy off the tee and gives “bombers” a clear advantage. 84% of all drives measured at least 280 yards which is one of the highest rates on Tour.

Because of how long the course plays, Quail Hollow is a strong test because of the distance demands placed off the tee. Shorter drivers who have accurate long-iron games can still compete here but their path to success is much more difficult. While fairway accuracy is one of the lowest on Tour at only 54%, it has proven to not matter. The last four winners have averaged 314 yards off the tee with none of them finishing in the top-40 in accuracy for the week. In fact, when McIlroy won in 2021 he finished second in driving distance and shockingly finished dead last out of 156 golfers in fairways gained.

Bombers and golfers with elite carry distance have littered recent leaderboards. The distance correlation has even proven true when tracking performance leading up to this event as every single winner since 2014 (with the exception of James Hahn) has ranked in the top 15 in Driving Distance in their last 36 rounds leading into the tournament.

Brooks Koepka spoke on the importance of length off the tee here, saying, “It’s a bomber’s paradise. There’s some lines we can take over some trees. Number two, I just take it up over the tree. You can take a short line into a bunch of them. Like I hit a pitching wedge into number one today. I’m pretty sure a bunch of guys are going to be hitting a six-, maybe five-iron into that hole. Length is a key factor out here.”

Along with inaccurate drives not being punished as much as at other venues, those with longer distance off the tee will have shorter approach shots into the firm greens. This will allow them to benefit more from those shots than at other courses where holding the green is not as difficult. In summary, Quail Hollow presents more opportunities to play aggressively off the tee and will allow those players a better chance to separate from opponents that are shorter hitters.

Approach

On approach, Quail Hollow ranks as the 11th toughest ShotLink course on which to gain strokes. The average Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate over the past three events is 60.5% which is well below the Tour average of 65.8%. Much of the difficulty is due to the aforementioned firmness of the greens combined with 55% of approaches coming from 175+ yards. Long approach shots that don’t have the necessary precision and trajectory could bounce ten yards off the green and leave difficult recovery shots. Thanks to many of the tricky pin placements which make the greens even tougher, proximity to the hole is one of the furthest on Tour at 42.7 feet.

In his first trip to Quail Hollow in 2021, Viktor Hovland finished third. Related to how difficult proximity to the hole is here, he said, “With how hard it’s playing, you’ve just got to hit greens. There are so many hole locations where you’re just not looking at the pin. Maybe on a couple of holes, you can get it close, and the par 5s maybe you can make some birdies. The rest of the place you’re just trying to hold on for dear life.”

While gaining off the tee matters more than usual this week, being positive on approach is still paramount as each of the top five on the 2021 leaderboard gained over 3.5 strokes with their second shots. Even on the Par 5s, players “Going for the Green” with their second shots will also have a challenging test as the “Hitting the Green” rate is only 15.5% compared to the Tour average of 22.4% on Par 5s at other Tour courses.

Around the Green and Putting

Around the green, Quail Hollow rates as slightly tougher than average when compared to other courses. Because of the difficult green complexes, scrambling from the rough and from the short grass is between 2-4% tougher here. There are some shaved runoff areas and false fronts that players will have to contend with that can make chipping difficult. Overall, if golfers are hitting the greens in regulation at a solid number, short game shouldn’t factor in as much. In 2021, Keith Mitchell finished third while losing almost three strokes around the green.

The greens at Quail Hollow are among the most challenging aspects of the course. Overall it ranks as the 6th toughest venue in which to gain strokes putting. Longer putts will be even more difficult as it ranks as the second toughest course for putts outside of 15 feet. The 3-putt rate is one of the highest on Tour at 3.95%.

While tee-to-green play is much more important than putting this week, going cold on the greens will quickly knock a player out of contention. Each of the last three winners here – McIlroy, Homa, and Day – gained more strokes putting than any other category.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Wells Fargo Championship

*In order of importance

• SG: APP
• Driving Distance
• Proximity 175+
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Long/Difficult Courses
• SG: Putting
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Total Driving
• 3-Putt Avoidance

Early Weather Forecast – Charlotte, North Carolina