2022 AT&T Byron Nelson – TPC Craig Ranch Course Preview

The PGA Tour heads back to the Lone Star State for the AT&T Byron Nelson and one final tune-up before the PGA Championship. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the second consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944, and in recent years has moved all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort also hosting.

It’s not often there is a strong field for an AT&T Byron Nelson as each of the last three events has had a Strength of Field rating of below 300. For many lesser-ranked players, it represents the last chance to qualify for the following week’s PGA Championship by winning this tournament. This year, however, with the PGA Championship only 230 miles up the road in Oklahoma along with most of the elite players opting to skip the Mexico Open and the Wells Fargo Championship, numerous high-ranked players will be competing and have created a stacked field. 

The headliner in the field is the world’s number one ranked player, Scottie Scheffler. He hasn’t played competitively since the Zurich Classic team event and will look to shake off any rust in preparation for the following week’s major. Another notable is 8th ranked Justin Thomas. His winning drought is up to 14 months as he looks to gain some momentum heading into the summer. Other high-ranked players in the field include Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Sam Burns, and Jordan Spieth.

TPC Craig Ranch Overview

Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a proto-typical TPC course.

Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it features sprawling fairways, few hazards, and larger than average flat greens. From the routing of the holes to the bunkering and green complexes, it is a very bland course. Weiskopf has a reputation for building uniform courses that are straightforward and without nuance. TPC Craig Ranch definitely fits this mold. 

TPC Craig Ranch is a par 72 course that can be stretched out to 7,468 from the tips. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 15th longest course on Tour.  In last year’s event however, on average, the course was set up to play at an average of only 7,252 yards.

As is usually the case with TPC courses, turf conditions are impeccable here, drawing rave reviews. This week we have a veritable mixture of three types of grasses. The fairways are Zoysia grass which is a spongey turf that is somewhat similar to Paspalum. The ball tends to sit up higher on Zoysia and is either loved or hated by players. TPC Southwind and East Lake are other courses with Zoysia fairways. The rough is Bermuda and is cut to 2.5” inches. Similar to last week at TPC Potomac, and what players will see next week at Southern Hills, greens are bentgrass and will run at an average of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

For last year’s event, a scoreable course combined with an easy setup and soft conditions from recent rainfall led to an all-out birdie fest. Longshot, K.H. Lee was the victor with a score of 25-under. The course played as the second easiest on Tour at 2.43 strokes under par. It put up such little defense that only two holes averaged over par, and it finished with the highest birdie to bogey ratio at 2.13. All in all, it is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball-striking and a putting contest on the greens.

As far as defense, the course puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes it does not actually threaten players in most instances unless they spray their tee shot. The only other real threat to tamper scoring would be the weather. Though drought conditions in Texas have ceased, temperatures are expected to be near record highs in the 90s, creating possible firm conditions on the greens. And while high winds are also a distinct possibility this time of year in Texas, neither should be enough of a deterrent to prevent scores from reaching the 20-under mark once again.

As previously mentioned, TPC Craig Ranch really does not have any memorable or strategic holes. The front nine is adjacent to the Sam Rayburn Highway while the back nine is located in a residential setting. There are plenty of holes that require distance with three par-5s above 550 yards and five par-4s over 465 yards. The par-5s are all easily reachable in two shots and hold a birdie or better rate of 6% higher than the Tour average when going for the green on the second shot. They rate as the fourth easiest on Tour with a scoring average of only 4.53.

The par-3s are really the most challenging section of holes at TPC Craig Ranch. Three of them play over 215 yards and they actually average 0.01 strokes over par. They play as four of the toughest seven holes on the course.

Similar to TPC Scottsdale, Weiskopf courses are known for having a driveable par-4. At TPC Craig Ranch, it is the 14th hole as players have a downhill tee shot from between 300-330 yards with water on the left and multiple bunkers around the green. Reaching the green on the tee shot is a challenge, and it should at least provide some excitement during the week.

Strokes Gained Analysis

As can be seen in the chart below, almost everything off the tee and on approach is easier at TPC Craig Ranch. With the lack of hazards and penal rough players are free to bomb away with driver. With conditions expected to be much firmer, expect more rollout off the tee which means it should play even shorter. Most of the fairways are routed around the meandering Rowlett Creek and players do need to take heed in avoiding its danger. TPC Craig Ranch did have the 7th toughest “non-rough” penalty average on Tour last year. This means that players who missed the fairway in either the creek, bunkers, or out-of-bounds areas had trouble saving par. But with the fifth widest fairways on Tour at over 40 feet on average, this course was the seventh easiest to gain strokes off the tee.

On approach, 38% of shots last year came from 200+ yards. That is 11.5% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only was the Greens in Regulation rate easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway was even easier relative to average. With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty. Because it is so easy off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In last year’s event, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard.

With players hitting the greens at a 71% clip, even those missing the greens have little to worry about when scrambling for par. These are not difficult green complexes by any means. There is very little contour and the rough around the greens is not much of an issue. Scrambling and around the green play rate as the easiest on Tour.

Similar to around the green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With so many players hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. While putting is uncomplicated here, targeting players who have the ability to get streaky hot with their flat stick, especially on bentgrass greens, is something to strongly consider.

Featured Image Credit: Club Corp